Another pattern to like, plus one to dislike:The 8th race last Saturday at Philadelphia had another good example of a recovery pattern. Proud Portia had recently made a 1/2 point breakthrough of her first race after a layoff and was a good play to run toward her 15" top. I would have played her the day she ran the g22-, but luckily I was not playing that day. After the off race with an excuse for the windy conditions, I would have made Proud Portia more than 50% to go forward from the 18" (although in this case she didn't).
Click here for the Sheet for Proud Portia.
Straight Man, who ran in the Preakness undercard, is a good example of a line that I believe you bet against at all opportunities. A horse that runs its best first out, and doesn't get back to that number within two months is very suspect (with the exception of a horse that bounces on less than three weeks rest from its first effort and then has time off). In particular, the time to bet against such a horse is when it has circled back to a number within four points of its top without reaching its top. It was nice to see that this analysis worked even with a horse trained by Baffert, although I couldn't find a horse in the race that I liked enough to play.
Click here for the Sheet for Straight Man.